Introduction — March 30, 2026
Precedent-Based Denial Intelligence

Case law for claims.

Behavior-aware decision infrastructure for behavioral health revenue cycle.

2–3×¹
higher denial rate in behavioral health vs. general medical
Presented to
Michael Burns, M.D., Ph.D.
Clinical Assoc. Professor, Anesthesiology
Associate CMIO for AI — Michigan Medicine
Presented by
Patrick Lord, MBA, MS
Founder, Stratum Collective
Context
First call — following up on our email exchange re: ARPA-H research partnership
The ask
Nothing yet. Find out if the research questions are interesting and whether there's a natural intersection. No commitment needed — better to find the right fit than move fast on the wrong one.
¹ KFF, 2024 — Mental Health Parity Analysis
Where We Left Off
Conflict assessed — no overlap

Same cycle. Different end.

Service
Clinical documentation
Coding
CPT assignment
Submission
Claim filed
Adjudication
Payer review
Denial
Reason issued
Appeal
Evidence assembly
Decimal Code — pre-submission · coding accuracy · NLP on clinical notes · CPT out · perioperative
Stratum — post-denial · overturn patterns · evidence assembly · precedent out · behavioral health
Where they run parallel — without competing
Decimal Code
Stratum
NLP on clinical notes → assigns CPT codes at point of care
Core method
ML on denial records → predicts overturn patterns at appeal
Multi-site case data — model improves as more encounters train it
Network value
Multi-facility corpus — value compounds as more precedents accumulate
Providers lack accurate, consistent coding expertise — especially across payers
Knowledge gap closed
Providers lack payer-specific appeal intelligence — only aggregation reveals it
Perioperative / general medical — codes out of documentation
Domain
Behavioral health / SUD — evidence out of denial patterns
The Problem
Behavioral Health Revenue Cycle

A broken system with
recoverable revenue.

40+
Percentage point overturn variance1
From evidence assembly alone — before clinical arguments are made.
Why current tools fail

RCM AI optimizes for volume — it handles the predictable cases faster. Behavioral health denials aren't predictable. They're high-variability clinical scenarios with significant payer discretion at the medical necessity level.

The result: facilities that fight denials intelligently — with the right evidence, assembled in the right sequence, referencing the right precedents — overturn 40+ points more than those who don't.

That gap is entirely recoverable. The asymmetry isn't clinical — it's informational.

1 Stratum early data — preliminary, validation in progress
What We Build
The Infrastructure

Precedent objects —
structured denial decision records.

Every denial, appeal, and outcome becomes a structured precedent object — versioned, queryable, outcome-labeled. Not a note. Not a PDF. A data asset the facility owns.

01 Denial Classification — payer, code, LOC, diagnosis cluster
02 Evidence Sequence — what was submitted, in what order, what worked
03 Narrative Architecture — the argument structure that moved the reviewer
04 Traceability Chain — guideline clause → evidence → outcome (transparent proof chain)
05 Escalation Economics — cost to appeal, expected recovery, break-even
06 Outcome Label — overturned, upheld, partial, withdrawn
07 Governance Metadata — version, author, last validated, drift flags
The compounding effect

Each precedent improves the next decision. The corpus compounds — the same dynamic that makes case law more valuable over time than any single ruling.

No one has built a structured, longitudinal, cross-payer corpus of behavioral health denial decisions. It doesn't exist in the published literature.

We don't draft appeals — we build cases. The corpus is what makes that repeatable.

Network flywheel
PARTNERS
Add denial + outcome records
CORPUS
Cross-payer, cross-LOC patterns
DECISIONS
Better outcomes for every member
attracts more partners
T3 →
Expert Marketplace: specialists license payer-specific POs to the network
The Platform
In Practice

The corpus as working infrastructure.

Appeal Pipeline
Stratum
Dashboard Library Pipeline Intelligence
Appeal Pipeline
12 active · 2 due this week · $51,000 pending recovery
+ New Appeal
Evidence
Gathering
4
Anthem PHP MedNec
Maya · Mar 24 · $8,000
UHC IOP Freq Limit
Maya · Mar 27 · $3,000
Cigna SUD Doc Gap
Alex · Apr 1 · $5,000
BCBS PHP Prior Auth
Sam · Apr 4 · $4,000
Submitted 3
Anthem PHP LOC
Maya · Mar 11 · $6,000
Magellan SUD MedNec
Alex · Mar 9 · $9,000
UHC PHP Doc Gap
Sam · Mar 7 · $4,000
Awaiting
Response
2
BCBS IOP MedNec
Maya · Feb 27 · $7,000
Aetna SUD Prior Auth
Alex · Feb 28 · $5,000
Outcome
Received
3
UHC PHP MedNec
Maya · Feb 14 · +$7,000 ✓
Aetna IOP LOC
Sam · Feb 9 · $0 ✗
BCBS SUD Freq
Alex · Feb 11 · +$2,000 ◑
Payer Trends
Stratum
Dashboard Library Pipeline Intelligence
Denial Intelligence
Behavioral health denial patterns, corpus coverage, and recovery metrics
Payer Trends Corpus Health Executive Summary
Demo Data
BH Denial Volume by Payer
Payer
BH
Denials
Overturn
Rate
YOY
Change
Volume
Anthem
1,247
78%
↑ 12%
UHC
892
71%
↓ 3%
BCBS
734
65%
↑ 8%
Cigna
456
82%
↑ 5%
Magellan
312
60%
↓ 7%
Aetna
289
74%
↑ 2%
Corpus Coverage ← research surface
Stratum
Dashboard Library Pipeline Intelligence
Denial Intelligence
Behavioral health denial patterns, corpus coverage, and recovery metrics
Payer Trends Corpus Health Executive Summary
Precedent Coverage Heatmap
ANTHEM
UHC
BCBS
CIGNA
MAGELLAN
AETNA
Medical Necessity
Strong
Weak
Strong
Weak
Level of Care
Weak
Frequency Limit
Strong
Weak
Prior Auth
Mod.
Documentation Gap
Coverage: 8 of 30 combinations have precedents · 27%
Research Opportunity
Three Open Questions

The research that needs to happen — and hasn't.

Question 01

Knowledge Transfer & Decay

How does appeal decision quality degrade when key staff turn over? What's the half-life of institutional RCM knowledge, and can it be modeled? Behavioral health has the highest staff turnover of any care setting — this is the most acute version of the question.

H1 Knowledge Asymmetry — providers lack structured access to denial pattern knowledge payers have
Question 02

Payer Drift Detection

Payer denial logic shifts without announcement. How quickly can a corpus-based system detect behavioral change in denial patterns — and how does that compare to a human team's detection latency? This is an ML problem with a real-world outcome.

H2 Speed Differential — precedent-based decisions are faster and more consistent than manual workflows
Question 03

Decision Consistency Under Disruption

Can precedent-based systems maintain overturn rates during workforce disruption (staff loss, mergers, system migrations)? This is the resilience question that ARPA-H's Resilient Systems ISO was written for — and it's untested in the RCM setting.

H3 Corpus Depth — a growing denial corpus creates compounding returns and makes Stratum defensible

These questions require real denial data at scale — structured, longitudinal, cross-payer. That dataset is what we're building. It doesn't currently exist anywhere in the published literature.

Stratum Corpus
Multi-facility denial corpus — pattern extraction across payers, overturn variance by evidence assembly, knowledge that no single facility could produce alone.
MPOG Consortium
84-system consortium, 15M procedural cases — multi-site outcome pattern aggregation, variance by clinical evidence, intelligence no single site could produce alone.

The methodology Michigan Medicine already developed for MPOG is exactly the kind of expertise this work needs. Same infrastructure problem — new domain.

Paths Forward
Research Partnership

Multiple ways to work together.

ARPA-H Application Partner

Named academic partner on solution summary. Scoped to validation and study design methodology. Submission target Q2 2026.

Structures: Advisory (in-kind) → Funded Evaluator (budget line) → Sub-awardee (UMich institutional)

Independent Corpus Research

First-mover publication rights on denial pattern analysis. IRB-compatible de-identified structure by design. Dataset doesn't exist anywhere else.

Development Partnership

Early access to the precedent corpus and platform. Inform design of the analytics and research export layer.

ARPA-H context

ARPA-H-SOL-24-103 (Resilient Systems Office) funds health systems that maintain function under disruption. Stratum's thesis — that precedent-based infrastructure preserves decision quality through workforce instability — maps directly to the ISO's mandate.

We're preparing a solution summary and need an academic partner with credibility in AI/ML validation, health system research, and study design.

This isn't a primary revenue path — it's a validation accelerant. The goal is to fund the rigorous evaluation that makes the corpus credible at scale.